SARS-CoV-2 Innate Effector Associations and Viral Load in Early Nasopharyngeal Infection.

To examine innate immune responses in early SARS-CoV-2 infection that may change clinical outcomes, we compared nasopharyngeal swab data from 20 virus-positive and 20 virus-negative individuals. Multiple innate immune-related and ACE-2 transcripts increased with infection and were strongly associated with increasing viral load. We found widespread discrepancies between transcription and translation. Interferon proteins were unchanged or decreased in infected samples suggesting virally-induced shut-off of host anti-viral protein responses. However, IP-10 and several interferon-stimulated gene proteins increased with viral load. Older age was associated with modifications of some effects. Our findings may characterize the disrupted immune landscape of early disease.

Will SARS-CoV-2 Become Just Another Seasonal Coronavirus?

The future prevalence and virulence of SARS-CoV-2 is uncertain. Some emerging pathogens become avirulent as populations approach herd immunity. Although not all viruses follow this path, the fact that the seasonal coronaviruses are benign gives some hope. We develop a general mathematical model to predict when the interplay among three factors, correlation of severity in consecutive infections, population heterogeneity in susceptibility due to age, and reduced severity due to partial immunity, will promote avirulence as SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic. Each of these components has the potential to limit severe, high-shedding cases over time under the right circumstances, but in combination they can rapidly reduce the frequency of more severe and infectious manifestation of disease over a wide range of conditions. As more reinfections are captured in data over the next several years, these models will help to test if COVID-19 severity is beginning to attenuate in the ways our model predicts, and to predict the disease.

SARS-CoV-2 innate effector associations and viral load in early nasopharyngeal infection.

COVID-19 causes severe disease with poor outcomes. We tested the hypothesis that early SARS-CoV-2 viral infection disrupts innate immune responses. These changes may be important for understanding subsequent clinical outcomes. We obtained residual nasopharyngeal swab samples from individuals who requested COVID-19 testing for symptoms at drive-through COVID-19 clinical testing sites operated by the University of Utah. We applied multiplex immunoassays, real-time polymerase chain reaction assays and quantitative proteomics to 20 virus-positive and 20 virus-negative samples. ACE-2 transcripts increased with infection (OR =17.4, 95% CI [CI] =4.78-63.8) and increasing viral N1 protein transcript load (OR =1.16, CI =1.10-1.23). Transcripts for two interferons (IFN) were elevated, IFN-λ1 (OR =71, CI =7.07-713) and IFN-λ2 (OR =40.2, CI =3.86-419), and closely associated with viral N1 transcripts (OR =1.35, CI =1.23-1.49 and OR =1.33 CI =1.20-1.47, respectively). Only transcripts for IP-10 were increased among systemic inflammatory cytokines that we examined (OR =131, CI =1.01-2620). We found widespread discrepancies between transcription and translation. IFN proteins were unchanged or decreased in infected samples (IFN-γ OR =0.90 CI =0.33-0.79, IFN-λ2,3 OR =0.60 CI =0.48-0.74) suggesting viral-induced shut-off of host antiviral protein responses. However, proteins for IP-10 (OR =3.74 CI =2.07-6.77) and several interferon-stimulated genes (ISG) increased with viral load (BST-1 OR =25.1, CI =3.33-188; IFIT1 OR =19.5, CI =4.25-89.2; IFIT3 OR =245, CI =15-4020; MX-1 OR =3.33, CI =1.44-7.70). Older age was associated with substantial modifications of some effects. Ambulatory symptomatic patients had an innate immune response with SARS-CoV-2 infection characterized by elevated IFN, proinflammatory cytokine and ISG transcripts, but there is evidence of a viral-induced host shut-off of antiviral responses. Our findings may characterize the disrupted immune landscape common in patients with early disease.